Public track record
The record
Every pick we publish gets graded against the final score — nothing is deleted or quietly revised, win or lose. This page is the whole history: every game, every month, every confidence level.
Overall record0–0
Hit rate—
Picks graded0
When we're confident, are we right?
A calibrated model wins about as often as it says it will. If the picks we called 70%+ don't actually win 70%+ of the time, the confidence number is the thing that's wrong — not the picks.
| Stated confidence | Picks | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60-70% | 0 | — | — |
| 70-80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80%+ | 0 | — | — |
By month
| Month | Picks | Record | Hit rate |
|---|